an introduction to
EMILIA VYNNYCKY and RICHARD G WHITE
chapters

Chapter 9

Special topics in infectious disease modelling

The final chapter provides examples of several ‘special’ topics in infectious disease modelling. Specifically, it discusses varicella and the impact of vaccination on zoster, serotype replacement for pneumoccal disease following vaccination, the dynamics of tuberculosis and the effect of HIV, and the role of coinfections for STIs. The chapter concludes with a discussion of how models have evolved with the HIV epidemic.


Estimates of the annual risk of tuberculous infection experienced in each year of life for individuals born in 1905 and 1920 in The Netherlands (data source: Styblo (1969))

The annual risk of tuberculous infection declined dramatically over time. Such estimates have been used to explain changes in the notification rates and epidemiology of tuberculosis in Western populations during the 20th century.